Strongman politics and China's foreign policy actors: maritime assertiveness under Xi Jinping

Abstract Since Xi Jinping's ascension to power, China's foreign policy behaviour—including in the maritime domain—has become increasingly assertive. While a number of systemic, domestic and individual-level factors have contributed to China's more muscular approach, adequately understanding the dramatic intensification of its assertiveness under Xi requires a careful examination of the foreign policy implications of his strongman rule. This article contributes to such studies by examining how Xi's efforts to consolidate power, particularly through nationalistic appeals and an anti-corruption campaign, have mobilized China's foreign policy actors. I argue that the political environment that Xi has fostered shapes the career incentives of individual actors, motivating them to demonstrate their loyalty through displays of assertiveness. Drawing on a case-study of China's maritime actors, with a focus on their behaviour in the South China Sea, I show how Xi's consolidation of power has elevated the stakes of zealously showcasing support for his call to ‘resolutely safeguard’ China's sovereignty claims. I find that Xi's emphasis on demonstrations of loyalty often comes at the cost of other interests, such as reassuring potential rivals, suggesting that the current political environment risks pushing foreign policy in an even more assertive direction than perhaps intended.