Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks

Cobalt, one of the essential new energy materials, is widely applied in many crucial industries. In recent years, the rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to increased cobalt demand, and geopolitical changes have increased the risk of cobalt supply disruption. To investigate the impact of geopolitical risks and demand shocks of EVs on the cobalt supply chain system, we applied the system dynamics model to assess the cobalt supply chain resilience and construct four subsystems of price, production capacity, supply, and demand to explore the resilience mechanism of the cobalt supply chain. Through Vensim simulation experiments, three resilience enhancement measures from recycling technology, inventory, and material substitution under the impact of the EVs demand and geopolitical supply risks are used as model scenarios. The research results revealed that the cobalt supply chain is less resilient under the impact of EVs and geopolitical risks. The reduction of cobalt imports under geopolitical risks has a direct impact on cobalt prices and produces a superimposed effect. When a 20%, 50%, and 100% reduction in China's cobalt imports due to geopolitical events, the cobalt price rises from 2026 by 8.24%, 10.67%, and 15.01% in 2027, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario, to reach the maximum cobalt price in 2028. The improvement in recycling technology makes the Chinese cobalt supply chain more resilient, as evidenced by capacity growth. A 33% improvement in recovery technology, increasing cobalt supply capacity by 12.57% and relieving supply pressure by 16.47% under cobalt supply disruptions. Inventory is one of the apparent improvements in the cobalt supply chain to respond to shocks in EV demand. Material substitution improves resilience in both scenarios, but is less effective in supply disruptions under geopolitical risk shocks.