Incorporating future climate uncertainty into the identification of climate change refugia for threatened species

濒危物种 气候变化 生物扩散 生态学 迁地保护 物种分布 地理 濒危物种 栖息地 生物 人口 社会学 人口学
作者
Linda J. Beaumont,Manuel Esperón‐Rodríguez,David A. Nipperess,Mareshell Wauchope‐Drumm,John B. Baumgartner
出处
期刊:Biological Conservation [Elsevier]
卷期号:237: 230-237 被引量:49
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.07.013
摘要

Climate change presents a substantial threat to species unable to keep pace via migration or adaptation. In-situ climate refugia, areas currently occupied by a species and that remain suitable in the future, will be vital for species with dispersal limitations. Ex-situ refugia, areas beyond species' current ranges that remain suitable, may facilitate range shifts or provide options for translocation. Assessing both refugia is a conservation priority. Here, we identify refugia for 319 species threatened in New South Wales, using four plausible scenarios describing futures that are Warmer/Wetter, Warmer/Drier, Hotter/Wetter and Hotter/Little Precipitation change, relative to the present. Using Maxent, we identify (a) in-situ refugia for each species under each scenario; (b) regions of consensus – areas projected as in-situ refugia across all scenarios; (c) hotspots of in-situ refugia (regions suitable for >1 species); and (d) regions of consensus for ex-situ refugia. Species were categorised based on the extent of in- and ex-situ refugia. By 2070, refugia will likely be broadest, and narrowest, under the Warmer/Wetter and Hotter/Wetter scenarios, respectively. East coast regions currently suitable for multiple species are unlikely to remain as hotspots. Most species (65%) are projected to have limited regions of consensus for either refugia. Translocation should be explored for species with little-to-no in-situ refugia, but for which ex-situ refugia exist. Management of existing populations will be critical for species with in-situ refugia but limited ex-situ. We highlight how management decisions based on agreement across climate scenarios can be made, irrespective of uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change.
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