Assessing the energy efficiency potential of a closed-loop supply chain for household durable metal products in China

The dramatic increase in Chinese residents' income has driven a sharp increase in the purchase of household durable metal products (HDMPs), which are classified into automobiles and other durable products, mainly appliances and electronics. To explore the energy efficiency potential of the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) for the HDMP industry in China, we develop a comprehensive evaluation framework based on dynamic material flow analysis and life cycle assessment. The results show that the demand for appliances and electronics and for electric cars will reach peaks in 2028 and 2035, respectively, and annual scrap for appliances and electronics and for electric cars will reach peaks in approximately 2036 and 2040, respectively. The recycling of scrap iron, aluminium, and copper can achieve energy conservation of approximately 72%, 94%, and 82%, respectively, compared with metal primary production, while remanufacturing processes can further reduce energy consumption by approximately 68%, 57%, and 72%, respectively. If the energy consumption of metal production, recycling rate, and remanufacturing rate can reach internationally advanced levels by 2035, approximately 50.5 Mtce (million-ton coal equivalent) will be saved compared to low-speed development by 2050; among these factors, the regeneration of waste metals can achieve the most significant energy efficiency effect.