Winter particulate pollution severity in North China driven by atmospheric teleconnections

Elevated levels of particulate matter in the atmosphere are hazardous to human health and the environment. Severe particulate pollution days, with daily mean PM2.5 concentrations exceeding 150 μg m−3, occurred frequently in North China, especially during the boreal winters of 2013–2019. Severe particulate pollution generally occurs under conducive weather patterns characterized by a stable atmosphere with weak winds, under which air pollutants emitted at the surface by human activities would accumulate. The occurrence of conducive weather patterns has been attributed to variations in numerous climate factors such as Arctic sea-ice cover, sea surface temperature and atmospheric teleconnections, but the dominant climate drivers remain unclear. Here, we show that the East Atlantic–West Russia teleconnection pattern and the Victoria mode of sea surface temperature anomalies are the top two dominant climate drivers that lead to conducive weather patterns in North China through the zonal and meridional propagations of Rossby waves. Our results suggest that, with the help of seasonal forecast from climate models, indices of these two drivers can be used to predict severe particulate pollution over North China for the coming winter, enabling us to protect human health by air-quality planning. Recurring climatic patterns can be used to predict severe winter particulate air pollution over North China, according to an analysis of wintertime particulate concentrations and atmospheric circulation.