Assessing the short-term effects of PM2.5 and O3 on cardiovascular mortality using high-resolution exposure: a time-stratified case cross-over study in Southwestern China

空气污染 环境科学 污染物 微粒 泊松回归 臭氧 相对风险 空气污染物 空气质量指数 污染 环境卫生 医学 置信区间 气象学 地理 化学 内科学 生物 人口 生态学 有机化学
作者
Xinyue Tian,Jing Zeng,Xuelin Li,Sheng Li,Tao Zhang,Ying Deng,Fei Yin,Yue Ma
出处
期刊:Environmental Science and Pollution Research [Springer Nature]
卷期号:31 (3): 3775-3785 被引量:1
标识
DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-31276-z
摘要

Air pollution is a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, limited studies have estimated the effects of ambient air pollution on CVD mortality using high-resolution exposure assessment, which might fail to capture the spatial variation in exposure and introduce bias in results. Besides, the three-year action plan (TYAP, 2018–2020) was released; thus, the constitution and health effect of air pollutants may have changed. In this study, we estimated the short-term effect exposed to particulate matters with parameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) with 0.05° × 0.05° resolution on CVD mortality and measured the influence of TYAP in the associations. We used random forest models with spatial weight matrices to attain high-resolution pollutant concentrations and conditional Poisson regression to assess the relationship between air pollution and cardiovascular mortality. With an increase of 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 and O3 during 2018–2021 in the Sichuan Basin (SCB), CVD mortality increased 1.0134 (95% CI 1.0102, 1.0166) and 1.0083 (95% CI 1.0060, 1.0107), respectively, using high-resolution air pollutant concentration, comparing to 1.0070 (95% CI 1.0052, 1.0087) and 1.0057 (95% CI 1.0037, 1.0078) using data from air quality monitoring stations (AQMs). After TYAP, the relative risk (RR) due to PM2.5 rose up to 1.0149 (95% CI 1.0054, 1.0243), and the RR due to O3 rose up to 1.0089 (95% CI 1.0030, 1.0148) in Sichuan Province. We found significantly positive association of cardiovascular mortality and air pollution in Sichuan Province. And using high-resolution exposure would be more accurate to estimate the effect of air pollution on CVD. After TYAP, the cardiovascular mortality risk estimation due to PM2.5 decreased in elderly in SCB, and the risk due to O3 increased in Sichuan Province.
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