Quantitative association between lead exposure and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a Bayesian network-based predictive study

Abstract Background Environmental lead (Pb) exposure have been suggested as a causative factor for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, the role of Pb content of human body in ALS outcomes has not been quantified clearly. The purpose of this study was to apply Bayesian networks to forecast the risk of Pb exposure on the disease occurrence. Methods We retrospectively collected medical records of ALS inpatients who underwent blood Pb testing, while matched controlled inpatients on age, gender, hospital ward and admission time according to the radio of 1:9. Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN), a semi-naïve Bayes classifier, was established to predict probability of ALS or controls with risk factors. Results A total of 140 inpatients were included in this study. The whole blood Pb levels of ALS patients (57.00 μg/L) were more than twice as high as the controls (27.71 μg/L). Using the blood Pb concentrations to calculate probability of ALS, TAN produced the total coincidence rate of 90.00%. The specificity, sensitivity of Pb for ALS prediction was 0.79, or 0.74, respectively. Conclusion Therefore, these results provided quantitative evidence that Pb exposure may contribute to the development of ALS. Bayesian networks may be used to predict the ALS early onset with blood Pb levels.