Regime shift of the leading mode of winter surface wind speed in northwest China in 2003/04 and its possible link with Barents–Kara sea ice

Abstract Using the ERA‐5 reanalysis datasets, NCEP/NCAR sea ice concentration (SIC) and observed winter surface wind speed (WSWS) in northwest China during 1979–2020, this study examined the regime shift of the leading mode of observed WSWS in northwest China and investigated its possible link with the winter Barents–Kara Sea (BKS) SIC. The leading mode of observed WSWS in northwest China showed negative anomalies in southern and northeastern Xinjiang, Gansu, western and northern Shaanxi Provinces, and positive anomalies in northwestern and middle Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia Provinces. The signs of WSWS in the leading mode is generally opposite to their trends during 1979–2020. Leading principal component (PC1) of observed WSWS in northwest China underwent an obvious decreasing regime shift in 2003/04, as well as the winter BKS SIC. There are significant correlations between PC1 and BKS SIC on both interdecadal and interannual timescales. Decadal decrease of BKS SIC is accompanied with a positive phase of Scandinavia pattern (SP) with positive anomalies of 500‐hPa geopotential height over subtropical North Atlantic, Arctic‐Ural region and southern Asia, and negative anomalies over northern North Atlantic‐West Europe and Siberia regions. BKS SIC and SP significantly influenced the Northern China Wind Index (NCWI) at 200 hPa on interdecadal timescale, which was related to the PC1 on both interdecadal and interannual timescales after removing the signal of Arctic Oscillation. Meridional configuration of Siberian cyclonic anomaly and southern Asian anticyclonic anomaly associated with the winter BKS SIC could enhance the intensity of NCWI, which favoured the increase of observed WSWS in northwest China and thereby may contribute to the regime shift in 2003/04 of the leading mode. However, there were still some stations showing decreasing regime shift, which mainly located at the region of steeping terrain. These decreasing changes of WSWS may be related to circumfluence effect of terrain, urbanization and local microclimate, and these reasons still need further detailed study.