Long-term prognosis and prognostic factors of liver cirrhosis in the 1980s

The prognosis of 174 patients with cirrhosis during the 1980s (1981-89) was analysed. The estimated survival rates were 87.3% in 3 years and 68.5% in 5 years. During the follow-up period, 58 patients died: 20 of hepatocellular carcinoma (37.7%); 11 of hepatic failure (20.8%); eight of gastrointestinal bleeding (15.1%); and 14 of other causes (26.4%). Multivariate analysis revealed that serum albumin, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min and white blood cell count were significantly associated with prognosis. The results were also compared to our previous study covering the 1970s (1971-80). The estimated survival rate was significantly improved compared to that during the 1970s (54.3% in 5 years, P < 0.001). In the 1980s, hepatic failure mortality significantly decreased (P < 0.01), and non-liver-related mortality significantly increased (P < 0.05). In summary, the prognosis of cirrhosis has improved in recent years, and changes of death cause and prognostic factors were observed. It was concluded that to evaluate the severity and prognosis of cirrhosis, new indices and appropriate classification were necessary.