Febrile Phase Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor and Olfactomedin 4 as Prognostic Biomarkers for Severe Dengue in Adults

Abstract Background Dengue cases continue to rise and can overwhelm healthcare systems during outbreaks. In dengue, neutrophil mediators, soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and olfactomedin 4, and mast cell mediators, chymase and tryptase, have not been measured longitudinally across the dengue phases. The utility of these proteins as prognostic biomarkers for severe dengue has also not been assessed in an older adult population. Methods We prospectively enrolled 99 adults with dengue—40 dengue fever, 46 dengue with warning signs and 13 severe dengue, along with 30 controls. Plasma levels of suPAR, olfactomedin 4, chymase and tryptase were measured at the febrile, critical and recovery phases in dengue patients. Results The suPAR levels were significantly elevated in severe dengue compared to the other dengue severities and controls in the febrile (P < .001), critical (P < .001), and recovery (P = .005) phases. In the febrile phase, suPAR was a prognostic biomarker of severe dengue, with an AUROC of 0.82. Using a cutoff derived from Youden's index (5.4 ng/mL) and an estimated prevalence of severe dengue (16.5%) in our healthcare institution, the sensitivity was 71.4% with a specificity of 87.9% in the febrile phase, and the positive and negative predictive values were 54.7% and 95.8%, respectively. Olfactomedin 4 was elevated in dengue patients but not in proportion to disease severity in the febrile phase (P = .04) There were no significant differences in chymase and tryptase levels between dengue patients and controls. Conclusions In adult dengue, suPAR may be a reliable prognostic biomarker for severe dengue in the febrile phase.