Can carbon emission trading pilot facilitate green development performance? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Achieving the win-win goal of sustainable economic growth and carbon neutrality is a sustainable development challenge facing all countries worldwide. This study examines the impact of carbon emission trading pilot policy on green development performance, aiming to provide experience for developing countries to reduce carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality goals. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2017 in China, green development performance (GD) is deconstructed into green total factor productivity (GTFP) and carbon emissions intensity (CEI), DEA-DDF-Malmquist index model and PSM-DID (Propensity Score Matching-Differences-in-Differences) model are adopted to explore the policy assessment and impact of the carbon emission trading pilot, which verifies the influence of the pilot policy on GTFP and CEI between experimental group and the control group. The empirical results showed that the carbon emission trading pilot policy could not effectively improve the green total factor productivity and carbon emissions reduction in the pilot areas, R&D intensity improvement, technology introduction improvement, and industrial structure optimization have positive and significant promoting effects on GTFP, the optimization of energy structure and industrial structure contributes to the carbon emissions reduction. This study provides information and decision-making references to address the challenge of climate change, energy conservation, and emission reduction, as well as a scientific basis for expanding pilot policies for China.