Asymmetric temperature effect on leaf senescence and its control on ecosystem productivity

Widespread autumn cooling occurred in the northern hemisphere (NH) during the period 2004-2018, primarily due to the strengthening of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Siberian High. Yet, while there has been considerable focus on the warming impacts, the effects of natural cooling on autumn leaf senescence and plant productivity have been largely overlooked. This gap in knowledge hinders our understanding of how vegetation adapts and acclimates to complex climate change. In this study, we utilize over 36,000 in situ phenological time series from 11,138 European sites dating back to the 1950s, and 30 years of satellite greenness data (1989-2018), to demonstrate that leaf senescence dates (LSD) in northern forests responded more strongly to warming than to cooling in autumn. Specifically, a 1 °C increase in temperature caused 7.5 ± 0.2 days' delay in LSD, whereas a 1 °C decrease led to an advance of LSD with 3.3 ± 0.1 days (