Assessing the inundation dynamics and its impacts on habitat suitability in Poyang Lake based on integrating Landsat and MODIS observations

Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, serves critical ecosystem function for water regulation and biodiversity conservation. However, it experienced dramatic changes in lake inundation due to recent climate change and human activities, causing ecological and economic problems. Here, we applied a multiple-index water detection rule to integrated Landsat and MODIS products to reconstruct surface water series at 30-m and 8-day resolutions and quantified the spatio-temporal inundation dynamics in Poyang Lake over the past 20 years (2000-2019). Furthermore, their influences on habitat suitability for herbivorous birds were also assessed from the perspectives of hydroperiod and vegetation growth threshold. The significant declining trend (-26.66 km2 yr-1, p < 0.001) for the annual minimum water areas throughout the 20 years implied that Poyang Lake was undergoing a continuous shrinkage in the low-water season. On the monthly scale, inundation frequency (IF) decreases were more significant in September-January, most of which occurred in the alluvial delta zones near the lake center. The altered water regime after the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) might be the dominant contributor responsible for the continuous lake shrinkage during the recent low-water period. The sub-lakes suffered from spring drought rather than winter drought, triggering vegetation successions regarding the reversed trend of the well-documented xerophilization in Poyang Lake. The recent earlier and prolonged dry seasons caused an increase of suitable habitat for herbivorous birds (13.92 km2 year-1, p < 0.1), but triggered a potential risk of food quality degradation when the migratory waterbirds peaked in December. These results provide a clear reference for optimizing the hydrologic management and biodiversity conservation of Poyang Lake.