The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty on non-ferrous metal market: Based on quantile regression

With the intensifying of competition among big countries and trade friction, prices of non-ferrous metal fluctuate more and more fiercely. This paper examines how asymmetric oil price shocks and different kinds of uncertainty affect non-ferrous metal market under different market conditions over the period from April 2nd, 1990 to April 7th, 2021. The results show that the nexus of non-ferrous metal prices with oil price shocks and uncertainty are distinct under different market conditions. First of all, the effects caused by oil price shocks are the strongest under the bearish market, then the bullish market. Then, with the increase of quantiles, the impact strength of positive oil price shocks is intensified, while the impact strength of negative oil price shocks decreased with the increase of quantiles. Moreover, effects of VIX are more significant than EPU. At last, effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty varies during the financial crisis in 2008, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering the asymmetries and heterogeneous of effects from oil price shocks and uncertainty under different market conditions, it's of great necessary for policy makers to formulate targeted policies according to different market expectations.