Improvement of the anthropogenic emission rate estimate in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, for 2020–21 winter

Ulaanbaatar (UB), the fast-growing capital of Mongolia, is known for its world's worst level of particulate matter (PM) concentrations in winter. However, current anthropogenic emission inventories over the UB are based on data from more than fifteen years ago, and satellite observations are scarce because UB is in high latitudes. During the winter of 2020–21, the first period of the Fine Particle Research Initiative in East Asia considering the National Differences (FRIEND), several times higher concentrations of PM in UB compared to other urban sites in East Asia were observed but not reproduced with a chemical transport model mainly due to the underestimated anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, we devised a method for sequentially adjusting emissions based on the reactivity of PM precursors using ground observations. We scaled emission rates for the inert species (CO, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC)) to reproduce their observed ambient concentrations, followed by SO2 to reproduce the concentration of SO42−, which was examined to have the least uncertainty based on the abundance of observed NH3, and finally NO and NH3 for NO3−, and NH4+. This improved estimation is compared to regional inventories for Asia and suggests more than an order of magnitude increase in anthropogenic emissions in UB. Using the improved emission inventory, we were able to successfully reproduce independent observation data on PM2.5 concentrations in UB in December 2021 from the U.S. Embassy. During the campaign period, we found more than 50% of the SO42−, NO3−, and NH4+ increased in UB due to the improvement could travel to Beijing, China (BJ), and about 20% of the SO42− could travel to Noto, Japan (NT), more than 3000 km away. Also, the anthropogenic emissions in UB can effectively increase OC, NO3−, and NH4+ concentrations in BJ when Gobi dust storms occur.