Scenario-based flood risk assessment for urbanizing deltas using future land-use simulation (FLUS): Guangzhou Metropolitan Area as a case study

城市化 大都市区 风暴潮 环境科学 大洪水 气候变化 洪水(心理学) 自然灾害 代表性浓度途径 沿海洪水 土地利用 水资源管理 环境资源管理 地理 自然地理学 气候学 风暴 气候模式 气象学 土木工程 海平面上升 工程类 海洋学 经济增长 经济 考古 心理学 地质学 心理治疗师
作者
Weibin Lin,Yimin Sun,Steffen Nijhuis,Zhaoli Wang
出处
期刊:Science of The Total Environment [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:739: 139899-139899 被引量:197
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139899
摘要

Preparing cities for sea-level rise is one of the critical challenges of the twenty-first century. Extreme weather events, natural hazards, and the failure of climate mitigation and adaptation are substantial risks. These risks are especially significant in fast-urbanizing deltas, such as the Pearl River Delta in China, because the conflict between urbanization and flooding caused by climate change will be more significant in the future. This paper elaborates on an approach that employs a future land-use simulation (FLUS) model for scenario-based 100-year coastal flood risk assessment. Storylines of future scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), called the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, are utilized in the present study. The Guangzhou Metropolitan Area (GMA) is used as a case study to explore the probable implications of future land-use changes due to the ongoing urbanization process in the region in relation to projected environmental changes (sea-level rise, storm surge, and land subsidence). The results indicate that there will be a significant increase in flooded urban areas in the future. The simulations show that, as compared to 2015, the built-up area in the GMA will increase by 246.57 km2 in 2030 and 513.03 km2 in 2050. As compared to 2015, the flooding of built-up areas in 2030 and 2050 will respectively increase by about 31.32 km2 and 48.49 km2 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. It is also found that, as the main driving factor, urbanization will increase the flooding of built-up areas in Guangzhou in 2030 and 2050 by about 1.9 km2 and 5.9 km2, respectively, under the RCP 2.6 scenario as compared to 2015. Additionally, due to environmental changes, the flooding of built-up areas in Guangzhou will increase by about 24.2 km2 and 26.8 km2, respectively, under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2030 and 2050 as compared to 2015. This increasing flood risk information determined by the simulation provides insight into the spatial distribution of future flood-prone urban areas to facilitate the development and prioritization of flood mitigation measures at the most critical locations in the region.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
刚刚
doiwanado完成签到,获得积分10
1秒前
Akim应助多情邑采纳,获得10
1秒前
3秒前
今后应助灵巧妙柏采纳,获得10
3秒前
coconutluv77发布了新的文献求助10
3秒前
一二三砰发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
哎呀完成签到,获得积分10
5秒前
6秒前
7秒前
8秒前
脑洞疼应助默顿的笔记本采纳,获得10
8秒前
8秒前
wonder123发布了新的文献求助10
8秒前
温暖雨灵完成签到,获得积分20
9秒前
iNk应助YellowStar采纳,获得10
9秒前
辛辛应助麦子采纳,获得10
10秒前
10秒前
然12138发布了新的文献求助10
11秒前
hanghang完成签到,获得积分10
11秒前
哎呀发布了新的文献求助10
12秒前
灵巧妙柏完成签到,获得积分10
12秒前
FF完成签到 ,获得积分10
12秒前
12秒前
13秒前
好滴捏发布了新的文献求助10
13秒前
17秒前
18秒前
上官若男应助ddddd采纳,获得10
18秒前
19秒前
贤惠的白开水完成签到 ,获得积分10
19秒前
圆圆完成签到 ,获得积分10
19秒前
光亮语梦完成签到 ,获得积分10
19秒前
小白完成签到 ,获得积分10
23秒前
王维佳发布了新的文献求助10
23秒前
Orange应助认真初之采纳,获得10
23秒前
金鱼发布了新的文献求助10
24秒前
24秒前
24秒前
25秒前
高分求助中
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 500
‘Unruly’ Children: Historical Fieldnotes and Learning Morality in a Taiwan Village (New Departures in Anthropology) 400
Indomethacinのヒトにおける経皮吸収 400
Phylogenetic study of the order Polydesmida (Myriapoda: Diplopoda) 370
基于可调谐半导体激光吸收光谱技术泄漏气体检测系统的研究 350
Robot-supported joining of reinforcement textiles with one-sided sewing heads 320
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3989550
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3531774
关于积分的说明 11254747
捐赠科研通 3270278
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1804966
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 882125
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 809176