Ten-year conditional probability of survival for patients with ovarian cancer: A new metric tailored to Long-term survivors

医学 阶段(地层学) 置信区间 内科学 癌症 卵巢癌 外科 生物 古生物学
作者
Richard L. Kahn,Olga T. Filippova,Sushmita Gordhandas,Anjile An,Alli M. Straubhar,Oliver Zivanovic,Ginger J. Gardner,Roisin E. O’Cearbhaill,William P. Tew,Rachel N. Grisham,Yukio Sonoda,Kara Long Roche,Nadeem R. Abu‐Rustum,S. Dennis
出处
期刊:Gynecologic Oncology [Elsevier]
卷期号:169: 85-90
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ygyno.2022.11.030
摘要

We assessed a conditional probability of survival (CPS) model to determine the probability of living 10 years after ovarian cancer diagnosis after having already survived 5 years.We identified patients newly diagnosed with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer from 1/1/2001-12/31/2009 and treated at our institution. Patients with <3 years follow-up were excluded. CPS was defined as the probability of surviving additional years (y) based on the condition a patient had already survived a given time (x): S(x + y)/S(x). Confidence intervals were estimated using a variation of Greenwood's formula.Of 916 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 473 (52%) were diagnosed from 2001 to 2005 and 443 (48%) from 2006 to 2009. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range, 25-95). The conventional 10-year OS rate for all patients was 29% (95% CI: 26%-32%)-75% (95% CI: 68%-82%) for stage I/II disease, 22% (95% CI: 19%-26%) for stage III, and 6.9% (95% CI: 3.9%-12%) for stage IV. For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors was 65% (95% CI: 59%-70%); for those ≥65 years, it was 48% (95% CI: 38%-57%). For patients <65 years, the 10-year CPS for 5-year survivors by stage was: stage I/II, 89% (95% CI: 81%-94%); stage III, 58% (95% CI: 50%-66%); and stage IV, 26% (95% CI: 12%-42%). For patients ≥65 years, rates by stage were 78% (95% CI: 53%-91%), 42% (95% CI: 30%-53%), and 29% (95% CI: 7%-56%), respectively.For long-term survivors with high-grade epithelial ovarian cancer, CPS provides better prediction of survival than conventional methods.
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