Machine learning-based prediction model and visual interpretation for prostate cancer

Abstract Background Most prostate cancers(PCa) rely on serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for biopsy confirmation, but the accuracy needs to be further improved. We need to continue to develop PCa prediction model with high clinical application value. Methods Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and prostate cancer data were obtained from the Chinese National Clinical Medical Science Data Center for retrospective analysis. The model was constructed using the XGBoost algorithm, and patients’ age, body mass index (BMI), PSA-related parameters and serum biochemical parameters were used as model variables. Using decision analysis curve (DCA) to evaluate the clinical utility of the models. The shapley additive explanation (SHAP) framework was used to analyze the importance ranking and risk threshold of the variables. Results A total of 1915 patients were included in this study, including 823 (43.0%) were BPH patients and 1092 (57.0%) were PCa patients. The XGBoost model provided better performance (AUC 0.82) compared with f/tPSA (AUC 0.75),tPSA (AUC 0.68) and fPSA (AUC 0.61), respectively. Based on SHAP values, f/tPSA was the most important variable, and the top five most important biochemical parameter variables were inorganic phosphorus (P), potassium (K), creatine kinase MB isoenzyme (CKMB), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and creatinine (Cre). PCa risk thresholds for these risk markers were f/tPSA (0.13), P (1.29 mmol/L), K (4.29 mmol/L), CKMB ( 11.6U/L), LDL-C (3.05mmol/L) and Cre (74.5-99.1umol/L). Conclusion The present model has advantages of wide-spread availability and high net benefit, especially for underdeveloped countries and regions. Furthermore, these risk thresholds can assist in the diagnosis and screening of prostate cancer in clinical practice.