Validity of modified Padua risk assessment model in identifying high venous thromboembolism risk among hospitalized medical patients

Objective To retrospectively test the validity of modified Padua risk assessment model in identifying high venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk among hospitalized medical patients. Methods A retrospective case-control study was performed among hospitalized medical patients admitted into the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from January 2013 to December 2016.A total of 432 patients with definite VTE during hospitalization were recruited and a tota1 of 864 controls were randomly selected from the patients without VTE admitted into the same department within the same period.The medical history, laboratory examination results and other clinical data of two groups was retrospectively collected.The risks of both groups were retrospectively assessed with the Padua risk assessment model and modified Padua risk assessment model and the two risk assessment models were compared. Results The score of the two risk assessment models in VTE group was significant higher than that in control group (Padua: 2.92±0.18 vs 1.25±0.10, t=16.241, P<0.05; modified Padua: 3.27±0.19 vs 1.64±0.11, t=14.245, P<0.05). With the increase in risk score, the occurrence of VTE increased accordingly.By Padua risk assessment model and modified Padua risk assessment model, the risk of VTE of high-risk patients was 12.27 times (95% CI: 9.00-17.98, P<0.05) and 8.17 times (95% CI: 6.00-11.12, P<0.05) as high as that of low-risk patients.The proportion of high-risk patients judged by modified Padua risk assessment model was significant higher than that by Padua risk assessment model (48.61% vs 39.12%, P<0.05). Conclusions Modified Padua risk assessment model can effectively and quantitatively assess the risk of VTE among medical patients based on their individual VTE risk factors. Key words: Modified Padua risk assessment model; Medical patients; Venous thromboembolism; Case-control study