Analysis of urban carbon balance based on land use dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Faced with climate change, rapid urbanization, and ecosystem degradation, comprehensive analysis of carbon balance are urgently required to achieve the envisioned sustainable development goals. This study proposed an integrated framework incorporating land use dynamics and carbon balance into the urban management system, according to the logic of “Background & Objectives-Carbon balance-(Natural system + Land use and land cover change + Socio-economic system)-Policy & Strategy”. This is followed by the case study and specific policy implications of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, a typical urban agglomeration in China. Results show that the land use structure of the BTH region remained relatively steady from 2000 to 2015. Cultivated land is primarily distributed in the southeast, with a slight decrease from 50.72% in 2000 to 47.63% in 2015. Carbon emissions from built up land have the highest proportion and increased from 82.58% in 2000 to 92.43% in 2015. Carbon sinks are mainly found in the northwest, and carbon sources are mainly found in the southeast. The carbon balance is increasingly unsettled, with a sharply decreasing rate from 2.73% in 2000 to 0.66% in 2015. Comprehensive policies are proposed from four specific aspects, i.e., strengthening land governance, land use planning, optimizing industrial structure, and regulating residential behavior. The results and conclusions provide scientific evidences for the regional spatial management to achieve sustainable development.