Circulating Tumor DNA to Predict Radiographic and Pathologic Response to Total Neoadjuvant Therapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Abstract Despite advances in treatment and response assessment in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), it is unclear which patients should undergo nonoperative management (NOM). We performed a single-center, retrospective study to evaluate post-total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in predicting treatment response. We found that post-TNT ctDNA had a sensitivity of 23% and specificity of 100% for predicting residual disease upon resection, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 47%. For predicting poor tumor regression on MRI, ctDNA had a sensitivity of 16% and specificity of 96%, with a PPV of 75% and NPV of 60%. A commercially available ctDNA assay was insufficient to predict residual disease after TNT and should not be used alone to select patients for NOM in LARC.