Financialisation of the European Union Emissions Trading System and its influencing factors in quantiles

Abstract This study analyses the financialisation of the carbon market and its possible external shocks, with a focus on the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), by investigating its quantile dependence and influence paths from stage three onwards. To achieve this, we construct a theoretical model of five factors related to the financialisation of the carbon market and empirically investigate the significant influencing factors and their influence paths under different quantiles using quantile group Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and quantile regression models. We find that the price of WTI crude oil and the market risk‐aversion index have a significant effect on the financialisation of the EU ETS at extremely high quantiles. Factors such as the WTI crude oil price, precipitation, average share price of thermal power companies, and the federal funds rate have a statistically significant impact on the medium quantiles. However, we find no significant influence at extremely low quantiles, indicating that policy instruments are necessary to effectively regulate the operation of the carbon market. Therefore, it is crucial for carbon market stakeholders to pay close attention to these factors and adapt to changing market conditions.